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Biden’s words and their timing could have a big impact.

“It’s basically unprecedented in American history,” Erik Loomis, a history professor at the University of Rhode Island who studies labor rights, told Vox. “Even FDR did not really intervene at the moment of a union election with a direct statement for a particular set of workers.”

Biden has promised to be a friend to labor

Biden, who received the backing of several prominent labor unions during the campaign, came into office promising to be a pro-union president. This video is a huge boost not only for the Alabama unionization efforts, but for many more workers around the country who may be considering forming a union. If the Bessemer employees unionize, it could push a wave of organizing activity at other Amazon warehouses around the country.

What Biden said about workers’ right to form a union was important. But even more important is what he said about what employers cannot do when employees are deciding whether or not to unionize. Alabama is a right-to-work state, meaning employees don’t have to pay dues in a union — which makes it harder for unions to survive.

“There should be no intimidation, no coercion, no threats, no anti-union propaganda,” Biden said in the video. “No supervisor should confront employees about their union preferences. It’s not up to me to decide whether anyone should join a union. But let me be even more clear: It’s not up to an employer to decide that either. The choice to join a union is up to the workers — full stop.”

Labor history expert Nelson Lichtenstein of the University of California, Santa Barbara tweeted about Biden’s video, “This is new, nothing like it before. Puts Obama to shame.”

As the Washington Post and other outlets have reported, Amazon has been actively discouraging the unionization push in Bessemer, putting anti-union flyers in warehouse bathroom stalls and texting employees telling them to vote against forming the union. Amazon didn’t return Vox’s request for comment on Biden’s statement.

The next four years of Biden’s administration could be a watershed moment for organized labor in the United States. The president’s early rhetoric and actions mark a big departure from his Republican predecessor President Donald Trump and from Democratic President Barack Obama, who Biden worked alongside as vice president.

“We never met with President Obama in the Oval Office in eight years,” North America’s Building Trades Unions President Sean McGarvey told Vox in a recent interview, noting he and other labor leaders met with Biden within the first 30 days of his presidency. “Never has the word ‘union’ flowed off a political leader’s tongue so easily as it has with President Biden.”

Coming off a year of the Covid-19 pandemic and resulting economic crisis could also give Biden an opportunity to make the case for increasing the number of unionized jobs, since unions helped protect people’s jobs during the coronavirus recession in 2020. As Vox’s Emily Stewart and Rani Molla wrote:

Even though the total number of jobs represented by a union went down by 444,000 in 2020, union jobs made up a larger share of total jobs, 12.1 percent, up half a percentage point from 2019. That’s because, thanks to union protections, people with union jobs were more likely than non-union workers to keep their jobs.

Of course, union leaders are still looking to see what concrete action Biden and his administration take on labor issues, including whether they’re able to successfully pass a pro-union bill, the PRO Act, or able to enforce existing labor laws to investigate corporations trying to discourage unionization of their workers.

Unions “go by what [presidents] do, not what they say,” McGarvey told Vox.

Why Biden’s words matter

On Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki clarified that Biden was not weighing in specifically on the Amazon union vote (the president did not mention Amazon by name in the video).

“We don’t comment on specific cases where it’s before the NLRB or could be before the NLRB, so we aren’t going to weigh in specifically on Amazon. But broadly he believes workers should have the right to organize; hence, he conveyed that in the video.” Still, Biden went out of his way to mention Alabama, where it’s hard to escape the news-making unionization effort in Bessemer.

Faiz Shakir, the co-founder of progressive media outlet More Perfect Union, told Vox that he had been in contact with White House chief of staff Ron Klain ahead of Biden releasing the video, encouraging the president to come out in favor of the Bessemer unionization push.

“It means a lot that Joe Biden did this,” Shakir told Vox. “They were from the jump appreciative of the idea.”

Labor historians and activists told Vox that the substance of Biden’s speech and the timing of it, in the middle of the Bessemer vote, are extremely significant. In a series of tweets, Lichtenstein compared Biden to President Franklin Roosevelt, under whose presidency unions flourished due to Roosevelt’s progressive New Deal policies and mass mobilization during WWII.

“Biden’s attack on employer intimidation of workers seeking to join a union is something new for a president since [the 19]30s,” Lichtenstein tweeted, adding Biden’s Department of Justice and National Labor Relations Board need to follow through.

Loomis, the history professor, told Vox that there’s added significance because unions had far more political power back in the 1930s and 1940s than they currently do. In 1953, 35.7 percent of private-sector workers belonged to unions, according to a 2016 American Journal of Public Health article. By 2020, that number dropped to 6.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Public-sector workers in unions are over five times that number, around 34.8 percent.

In other words, private-sector unions had more political power back in the 1940s and 1950s, meaning that both Democrat and Republican presidents had to work with them and pay lip service if they wanted to win over union voters.

Certainly, organized labor is still a sought-after bloc within Democratic politics, but its relatively low numbers in the private sector show that Biden is responding to a push from the party’s base, rather than a demand from an individual union, Loomis argued.

“By Biden making this statement, he’s responding to an overall feeling in the Democratic party for economic justice,” Loomis said. “It’s even beyond the union, it’s simply that growing demand you’re seeing in the Democratic base for a raised minimum wage.”

But Shakir, who served as campaign manager for Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2020 bid for president, says there are a lot of innate similarities between Biden and Sanders on labor issues.

“[Biden] campaigned as a pro-union candidate, and I remember many stops along the way in which he and Bernie were often aligned as they spoke to these AFL-CIO and Teamster gatherings,” Shakir told Vox. “There’s a lot of ideological camaraderie.”

This is surely not how Biden’s team thought the process would go. “Iran, which should be the beneficiary of his policy, is kicking Biden in the face,” said Fontenrose, who’s now at the Atlantic Council.

While most experts believe Washington and Tehran will eventually get back into the deal, what the new administration has learned is that its best-laid plans need retooling.

“The clear strategy that Biden presented during the campaign has not quite translated into this first month,” said Kaleigh Thomas, an Iran expert at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, DC. “We’ve lost the opportunity for a refresh the Biden team was looking to leverage.”

Candidate Biden promised to punish top Saudi leaders. He didn’t punish MBS.

In a November 2019 Democratic debate, MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell asked then-candidate Biden if he would reprimand senior Saudi leaders over the Khashoggi murder. His response was unequivocal.

“Yes,” he said. “Khashoggi was, in fact, murdered and dismembered, and I believe on the order of the crown prince. And I would make it very clear we were not going to, in fact, sell more weapons to them. We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are. There is very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia.”

But on Friday, Biden didn’t follow through on his promise. MBS escaped direct punishment, even though the intelligence report the administration released directly implicated him as the orchestrator behind Khashoggi’s murder.

The president and his team seem content with what they’ve already done to “recalibrate” the US-Saudi relationship, including curbing MBS’s access to Biden — he must now interact with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, his direct counterpart — and freezing billions in weapons sales to the country. Further, the “Khashoggi ban” could deter foreign leaders from attacking dissidents abroad.

Some say the administration’s actions will still be read as a severe reprimand for leaders in Riyadh. “Saudi Arabia is being normalized inside the US,” instead of being seen as a country that won’t be reprimanded for its internal politics save for religious education issues, said Yasmine Farouk, an expert on Riyadh at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Following the release of the report, and Biden’s policy changes, Farouk said, “That’s going to become the norm from now on, and that’s big when it comes to Saudi Arabia.”

But others believe the reason Biden’s team stopped short of punishing MBS was to keep the US-Saudi relationship from spiraling forever downward. That relationship matters, since the country is vital for America’s plans to stabilize Syria and Iraq, counter Iran, and fight terrorism in the region. It also helps that the country likes to invest billions in the American economy.

If the administration targeted MBS — the king’s son and likely future king of Saudi Arabia — the US would put all that at risk. That’s just not something Biden’s team wanted to do.

“We believe there [are] more effective ways to make sure this doesn’t happen again and to also be able to leave room to work with the Saudis on areas where there is mutual agreement — where there is national interests for the United States,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. “That is what diplomacy looks like.”

For Fontenrose, who was in the Trump White House during the Khashoggi affair, Biden ended up essentially where the former president did. “There’s literally no difference in their approach,” she told me, save for Biden avoiding the kind of crude comments Trump made about the issue. “This is just as much a get out of jail free card as MBS got from Trump.”

This is not to say Biden’s policy is identical to his predecessor’s or that it won’t change in the future. It’s only been a month, after all.

But what recent events have shown is that the president’s policies for Iran and Saudi Arabia haven’t gone as planned or as promised, which means we can all expect a change in the administration’s approaches in the days to come.

Sign up for The Weeds newsletter. Every Friday, you’ll get an explainer of a big policy story from the week, a look at important research that recently came out, and answers to reader questions — to guide you through the first 100 days of President Joe Biden’s administration.

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